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Un modelo de microsimulación basado en agentes para la propagación del COVID-19 en Medellín-Colombia

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dc.contributor.authorGómez Marín, Cristian Giovannyspa
dc.contributor.authorMosquera Tobón, Jose Davidspa
dc.contributor.authorSerna-Urán, Conrado Augustospa
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-31 00:00:00
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-17T20:21:16Z
dc.date.available2021-05-31 00:00:00
dc.date.available2022-06-17T20:21:16Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-31
dc.description.abstractDesde el brote del nuevo coronavirus (COVID-19) el 31 de diciembre de 2019 en China se extendió rápidamente a más de 200 países de todo el mundo. Los gobiernos de los países afectados han tomado medidas como el distanciamiento social para disminuir la tasa de propagación de COVID-19. Como una forma de evaluar la efectividad de tales acciones, diseñamos un modelo de microsimulación basado en agentes que permite representar la propagación de COVID-19 en Medellín, Colombia. En consecuencia, reproducimos el número de casos y muertes causadas por COVID-19 de acuerdo con los datos reales de Medellín utilizando el modelo propuesto. Además, probamos nuestro modelo con dos escenarios: primero con acciones gubernamentales reales y segundo sin acciones gubernamentales en Medellín-Colombia. Los resultados de nuestro modelo muestran que las políticas de salud pública tempranas permiten aplanar la curva de la propagación de COVID-19 en contraste con el escenario sin restricciones. Como trabajo futuro, incluiremos más clústeres, por ejemplo, clústeres de ocio, clústeres de transporte, y la dinámica de los casos extranjeros de COVID-19spa
dc.description.abstractSince the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) at December 31ths of 2019 in China it quickly spread to more than 200 countries around the word. Government on affected countries have taken actions such as social distancing in order to decrease the COVID-19 spreading rate. As a way to evaluate how effective are such actions, we design an agent-based microsimulation model that allows for representing the COVID-19 spreading in Medellín, Colombia. Accordingly, we reproduce the number of cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 according to Medellín-real data by using the proposed model. Also, we test our model with two scenarios: first one with real government actions and second one without any government actions in Medellín-Colombia. Our model results show that early-public-health policies allows for flatting the curve of the COVID-19 spreading in contrast to the scenario without restrictions. As future work, we will include more clusters—e.g., leisure clusters, transport clusters—and the dynamic of the foreign COVID-19 cases.eng
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doi10.24050/reia.v18i36.1501
dc.identifier.eissn2463-0950
dc.identifier.issn1794-1237
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.eia.edu.co/handle/11190/5153
dc.identifier.urlhttps://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v18i36.1501
dc.language.isospaspa
dc.publisherFondo Editorial EIA - Universidad EIAspa
dc.relation.bitstreamhttps://revistas.eia.edu.co/index.php/reveia/article/download/1501/1411
dc.relation.citationeditionNúm. 36 , Año 2021 :spa
dc.relation.citationendpage16
dc.relation.citationissue36spa
dc.relation.citationstartpage36005 pp. 1
dc.relation.citationvolume18spa
dc.relation.ispartofjournalRevista EIAspa
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dc.rightsRevista EIA - 2021spa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
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dc.rights.creativecommonsEsta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.spa
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dc.sourcehttps://revistas.eia.edu.co/index.php/reveia/article/view/1501spa
dc.subjectAgent-based microsimulation modelingeng
dc.subjectStochastic simulationeng
dc.subjectDissemination modelingeng
dc.subjectCOVID-19eng
dc.subjectMicrosimulación basada en agentesspa
dc.subjectSimulación estocásticaspa
dc.subjectModelado de propagaciónspa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.titleUn modelo de microsimulación basado en agentes para la propagación del COVID-19 en Medellín-Colombiaspa
dc.title.translatedUn An agent-based microsimulation model for COVID-19 dissemination in Medellín-Colombiaeng
dc.typeArtículo de revistaspa
dc.typeJournal articleeng
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dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501spa
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85spa
dc.type.contentTextspa
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